Say No More, say no more

Daily Kos Spotlight on San Diego

Someone has tipped off the Daily Kos on a letter from Congressional Candidate Francine Busby to her supporters from '04.

In part, it reads:

A "stealth" Republican is running as a Democratic candidate in the 78th Assembly District. Until November 2006 he was a loyal Republican who contributed thousands of dollars to Brian Bilbray and the powerful Republican Lincoln Club.

Help me stop Republicans from hijacking our Democratic primary.

Check out the posting here.

But lest the "stealth" candidate be caught with his political pants around his ankles (in a room full of conservative Republicans), he has been cleaning up his act by making some recent contributions to Democrats. You can see his entire political contribution record, including the record for any candidate, or your next door neighbor, here.

Auday Arabo Contributions from 2004 - 2006

LINCOLN CLUB OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY
04/14/2003 250.00
12/03/2003 1500.00
12/20/2003 1500.00
06/25/2005 1000.00
04/30/2006 500.00

BRIAN BILBRAY FOR CONGRESS
04/03/2006 250.00
05/05/2006 1000.00
05/26/2006 1000.00


Contributions from 2007

SAN DIEGO COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY
03/17/2007 285.00

OBAMA FOR AMERICA
03/27/2007 2300.00

The Elephant in the Room

In a way, it looks like we have already won!

From today's Union Trib:

SIMI VALLEY – The 10 Republican presidential candidates eagerly embraced the legacy of Ronald Reagan yesterday while barely acknowledging the current occupant of the White House.

In fact, President Bush's name was mentioned only once by one candidate during a 90-minute, nationally televised debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley.

Only mentioning the incumbent Republican ONCE in the entire debate? Even Gore, who ran away from Clinton at his own peril, mentioned the incumbent Democratic president from time to time - and he was impeached!!

Maybe we shouldn't impeach the president... lest he become a martyr for the Republican base!

Someone's got an Agenda...

Been checking with other politically connected San Diegans and nobody is taking credit for what must be the earliest hit piece in recent history. Someone who possibly spends too much time thinking about the Sweetwater Union High School District has come out all-guns firing in a blogsite named "78th Assembly District for Truth."

Check out the mudslinging posting here.

One curious point brought up by a reporter friend was the fact that Steve Peace wasn't mentioned as a possible candidate. Was the creator of this blog unaware of the repeated rumors that he will run, or was he/she attempting to make this look like it wasn't coming from Peace's camp by purposefully snubbing him in the first posting? Probably a bit conspiracy-theory, but it will be interesting to see if this becomes an important site in the runup to the Democratic primary, or if this is just a one-hit wonder.

Kids 'n the Hall

While the Assembly candidates are talking about the future, with an election that is today a full 14 months away, the real attention-getter is the past. Arlie Ricasa's prior run in 2004, and what she did or didn't say/do/promise, Steve Peace's energy dereg, Auday Arabo's Republican credentials, and Marty Block's Vince Hall connection.

This last blast from the past was covered by a prominent Sacramento blog, the California Majority Report which called out Hall as the campaign manager for Marty Block.

Hall's response, courtesy of the CMR:

As much as I would love to run Marty Block's campaign for the 78th Assembly District, I am only serving as a member of Marty's kitchen cabinet.

Marty's campaign is progressing very rapidly. He has already secured the endorsements of several key elected officials and labor leaders, as well as a host of community leaders (tba later). Marty's Community College Board district encompasses most of the 78th, and his Board of Education district encompassed much of the rest. He just retired from San Diego State so he will be campaigning full time while still teaching a limited number of courses. And he has an army of student volunteers that has been a hallmark of his past campaigns.

Very smart on the issues and an incredibly hard worker, Marty Block is going to make an outstanding candidate for this Democratic-leaning district. And most importantly, he will be an exceptional Assemblymember.

We will have to watch and see how Hall affects the Marty Block candidacy. Whether you believe that he is running the campaign or not, the idea that Block is being nurtured by Hall could be a setback for a candidate who should be able to earn voter support without Hall's imprimatur.

Yanking the rug...

Auday Arabo has apparently scored one early advantage in the race for the Democratic Nomination in AD 78. As seen in a prior posting, one of the speakers at his recent fundraiser was Assemblymember Alberto Torrico, the Chair of the Asian Pacific-Islander Caucus.

While this is an important endorsement for Arabo, it is a more important factor for Arlie Ricasa, who had the endorsement of the Asian Pacific-Islander Caucus when she ran in 2004.

With money and institutional Sacramento support, Auday has to be considered the leading contender among the existing candidates in the field. He is also the only candidate who would presumably have the financial support necessary to defeat Steve Peace if he were to get into the race.

The Money Game

Less than six months since Shirley Horton won re-election, the field for the next election is already shaping up, and one candidate is attempting to use his fundraising ability to scare off potential Democratic opponents.

Auday Arabo, profiled on his work webiste here, has been saying privately that he would raise $500,000 in his run for the Assembly, and he has publicly, and rather boldly, claimed to already have raised $180,000.

From the Capitol Morning Report (Subscription Required):

Auday Arabo, a candidate in the 78th AD, reports raising more than $180,000 at his campaign kick-off fundraiser on Feb. 23 where Asm. Alberto Torrico and former senator Wadie Deddeh were speakers. Contact: Heather Wright 916 712 6344.

This proves the point that the race in 2008 will be very different than 2006 where the primary winner, Maxine Sherard, won the primary without even raising the $50,000 required for a campaign filing.

An Inconvienent 13%

The National Journal reportsthat only 13% of Congressional Republicans believe Global Warming is caused by humans.

Would love to know the percentage that still think tobacco is non-addictive!

This has got to be some of the strongest evidence for the continued need for Democrats to build their majority in Congress. 2006 was an amazing election year, but armed with stats like these, we should be able to nationalize the congressional elections once again and build our Senate Majority. Could use a few extra congressional members too!

Ban Childless Marriages

Gay Rights Activists are taking the battle to the next level - protecting real heterosexual marriages from the threat of non-procreating couples who make a mockery of marriage by staying childless!

Good for them!

From the Seattle Times:

A group of gay-marriage supporters could begin collecting signatures today for a November ballot initiative that would limit marriage in Washington to couples willing and able to have children.

The measure would also dissolve the union of those who remain childless three years after marrying.

Now, some may see this as another opportunity for parody, or a parody in-of-itself. Either way, it does take a stab at the argument that Gays shouldn't be able to marry because it is unnatural.

Just how natural or purposeful is a heterosexual marriage, with an average lifespan of seven years, that does not make a contribution to the next generation of rugrats and ungrateful teens?

Less is More in 2008

State leaders are moving in unison to bring the 2008 Primary Election into February - providing the state's progressives a chance to actually impact the national election. Speaker Nunez is on board, as he discusses in this Sacramento Bee article. Clearly this would have a huge impact on the national primaries. One presidential campaign staffer told me "Come Feburary 5th, it's OVER!"

But now the California Majority Report informs us that we are actually going to get dinged by the Democratic Party. I have no idea how these rules work, but as suggested by Steve Maviglio, this is a good trade for Democrats who want to impact the national election.

The Wikipedia Election

Voters nowadays have an incredible ability to do their own personal research on the candidates, but for some candidates the information is more readily available, and in the case of Steve Peace, that's a bad thing.

A Google search of "Steve Peace" comes back with the first result as follows:

Stephen Peace - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The "Steve Peace Death March", as it was known, caused many legislators to switch their votes to support deregulation, and he took credit for being "the ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Peace - 20k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

Ouch.

One of the citations from the Wikipedia posting is to a San Francisco Chronicle article, which reads in part:

During a hurried two-week conference in August -- dubbed the "Steve Peace death march" for his propensity to keep negotiators at the table late into the night -- the fine points of the energy law were hashed out.

Legislators entrusted their judgment to Peace and the few colleagues who worked on the bill. There was an abiding sense by a number of participants that few members of either house knew what was in the bill or even understood it. It was passed by both houses of the Legislature unanimously and signed into law the following month.

It will be interesting how he handles this obvious shortcoming if he does run.

Post-Horton Possibilities

There are two possiblities for Shirley Horton in 2008. Either she is going to be a termed-out legislator with little obvious political future, or she is going to be the most heavily targeted Assemblymember in the state. Either way, this is the year for Horton to pay close attention to the opponents sneaking up behind her.

The top contender, and Horton's likely choice for a Democratic opponent, is Steve Peace, the former State Senator who has incredible fundraising possibilities but also considerable political baggage. If Peace doesn't run, eyes will shift to two other early candidates: Arlie Ricassa and Marty Block. Ricassa is a schoolboard member who ran in 2004, and presumably would have some endorsers and funders from that race who would return to her camp. Block is a community college trustee who should be able to draw on his Democratic Party involvement and Jewish/Attorney connections.

Also on the list is Auday Arabo, but a quick look at his resume makes you wonder if he is running as a Democrat or a Republican. A former Billbray staffer and member of the Lincoln Club? Shirley, you can't be serious.

Great Year for Clean Money?

In an incredibly optimistic rewrite of recent political history, the Califorrnia Progress Report suggests that 2006 was a "year of unprecedented growth for the Clean Money public finacing of campaigns movement in California." That's like saying it was a banner year for the Angelides Family!

The fact is that legislation meant to curb campaign spending and create public financing was killed in Saccramento, then the question was taken to voters and it lost by a 75-25 vote. That's embarassing for a campaign that was running hard, had phone banks every day up to the election, and had great free media coverage.

Another post on the same site is entitled "Prop. 89: We’ve Opened a Door for Reform That Will Never Be Closed." Yeah, that door led directly to getting our butts kicked. Great.

Nixonian, and not in a good way

As POTUS prepares for tomorrow's SOTU, he better be practicing with a cute white bunny rabbit and a magical hat. His approval ratings going into the speech are the lowest for any president the day before a State of the Union speech since Richard Nixon in 1974.

Better late than never. Here are the numbers:

65% disapprove of how Bush is handling his job as president.

71% say the country is on the wrong track

28% approval rating

Cross Postings and New Blogger

For the time being this site will cross-post from the Left-of-818 Mother Ship. Original postings to Left-of-619 will come from a guest blogger who is involved in the politics of the region.

You Can't Have Me!

This is a product of Left-of-818. I would be happy to invite people in the (619) area code to help me develop a blog similar to my LA Valley site... I just don't know anything about your politics.

If you are interested, please view my blog at left-of-818.blogspot.com or email me at andmaude@yahoo.com